D'oh.
You are correct sir. They don't make it easy to follow now. Even the websites that showed the count without the super delegates listed the 2383 number to win. I looked at 3 sites before writing my above comment, they all gave me the wrong impression.

EDIT: In my defense, they have been claiming she's the presumptive nominee since before the first primary, and again after every single primary day, so I mistakenly assumed this was just more of the same. However, it is correct that she's not the nominee yet, but she is the presumptive nominee with the votes to win, both pledged and non pledged. The actual vote won't happen until the convention.

But there is still SLIGHT hope that, now that she's the "presumptive nominee", the Republicans will jump the gun and indict her before the convention, giving the Democrats a reason to pick Sanders. Paper thin hope, tissue paper thin, but there is a single grain of hope left.

That is factually incorrect.

There are 4051 pledged delegates available. So to win the pledged delegate count, you only need 2026. Hillary currently has 2203.

You need 2383 INCLUDING the superdelegates (Hillary has 2777).

On both counts, Hillary has won.

It's over. Bernie lost.

I don't like it either, but short of Hillary being unable to accept the nomination for some reason (dying, dropping out, being disqualified somehow), she is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. If Bernie is staying in the race, it's only to gain some leverage (maybe a VP ticket?)

That said, I agree that this is a pretty weak attack on Trump. Everyone already knows he's an asshole, and his supporters clearly give zero fucks about insulting people with disabilities. They probably think it's hilarious.

Hasn't SHE also been filmed mocking Trump at her rallies...another person with disabilities, but his are purely mental.

EDIT: Also, is his mocking a disabled man really the most important flub he's made? Wouldn't disputing some of his policies be more to the point and make more of a difference. I mean, we already know he's a douchebag, and that's a selling point for most of his followers, not a deal breaker. Explain how his tax plan doubles the national debt, raises taxes on all non millionaires, and ends all social programs many of his followers use to live, while drastically lowering tax rates on millionaires and making it easier for them to hide money and move businesses out of the country, contrary to what he tells them in his rallies. I see this as a huge part of the problem this election, it's become all about personality, nothing of substance at all, because neither main candidate wants to discuss their plans or history.

EDIT: The following statement has been found to be inaccurate.

Um...keep in mind that she's NOT the nominee yet, people. It's another lie from her campaign, repeated by all media organizations.
A candidate needs 2383 PLEDGED delegates to win the nomination. She has 2184. Because there seems to be some question among Clinton supporters, 2184 < 2383. She's 199 short. That doesn't mean Sanders has much chance, it means the claim that "she won the nomination" is a BOLD FACED LIE that apparently 90% of Americans are gullible and ignorant enough to buy. Don't be a sucker and fall for then repeat another lie. Wait for the convention before calling her the nominee. She didn't win yet.

Actually, I've ignored the superdelegates in my math because I've basically assumed that they will go with whoever has the popular vote at the convention, but since you brought them up....

There's one scenario no-one has considered yet; probably because it's extremely unlikely, but just for fun, let's say Bernie continues as projected and arrives at the convention trailing Hillary by about 200 delegates. Meanwhile, Trump has been attacking the ever-loving hell out of Hillary and her poll numbers in the general election are starting to look REALLY bad, as in Trump might/could/probably will/almost certainly will win.

So far, this is all pretty much what's going to happen.

But in this strange alternate dimension, the DNC pulls its head out of its collective arse and realises "holy shit, we could lose the white house! Hang on, Bernie polls much better against Trump!". Unable to convince Hillary to drop out, the superdelegates swing en masse to Bernie handing him the nomination AGAINST the popular vote.

How do you feel about this? On one hand, yay, #FeelTheBern, #FuckYouTrump and on to the white house and potentially the most significant change in US politics in decades (or not, who knows how much one president can actually do).

On the other hand.... there's no way around the fact that the DNC will have subverted the will of the people. If the situation was reversed, and the superdelegates gave the nomination to Hillary where Bernie (hypothetically) had more pledged delegates, well, there would be riots.

Interested to hear your thoughts on this scenario (unlikely as it is).

BTW, the fact that your vote is essentially meaningless (luckily for you, it happens to be meaningless in your favour) in your state is yet another symptom of just how very fucked the electoral college is.

We'll have agree to disagree on the merits of Clinton and Trump.

As for the rest....

I haven't been "duped" by the media. The dem primary is over in all but name. Yes, it's not mathematically impossible for Bernie to win, but it's also highly improbable.

I've done the math.

Ignoring the super delegates, Clinton has 1768 vs Bernie's 1494.
There are 714 delegates still up for grabs, so Bernie would need to win 495 of them to be the popular pledged delegate candidate. That means Bernie needs to win 69% of the remaining delegates.

The vast majority(66.6% \m/) of those delegates are in the California primary where Bernie is projected to lose. Even the most optimistic poll has him losing by 2 points. If that happens it is mathematically impossible for him to win. Even if he manages a miracle and wins California by a few points, it's STILL mathematically impossible for him to win. He would have to win at least 53% of the vote in California to even stand a chance.

Finally, you're preaching to the converted. AFAIC, Bernie is so blatantly the obvious choice, I really can't understand why anyone wouldn't vote for him. Well, I can, it's because "boo! SOCIALISM!!! Oh teh noes!", but I find it depressing to accept. I've said before that in a sane political system, you would have a choice between a centre right candidate (Hillary) and Bernie.

And yes, Bernie beats Trump more than Clinton, but the democrats don't seem to have gotten that message.

Oh FFS. Look, I wish Bernie was the nominee too, but it's not going to happen.

Clinton IS the nominee, whether you like it or not. That's not media bias (although that certainly put her in this position), that's MATH.

Bernie is nearly 200 delegates behind her in pledged delegates, never mind the super delegates.

He would need to absolutely trounce Clinton in California, where the polls are predicting the opposite.

It's sad and your electorate made the wrong choice (on both sides) but it's reality and Bernie supporters need to wake the fuck up and deal with it.

While I agree, the tactics mentioned here may be heavy handed, there's certainly something seriously wrong with the fact that 90% (+-) of 'super delegates' are announcing they will vote for Clinton, but she has less than 55% of the actual VOTE.
It may not be appropriate to accost them outside their homes and hotel rooms, but it certainly IS appropriate to tell them clearly and repeatedly that if they go against the will of the people in this way, they will all be voted out of office.

In Washington, over 70% of the vote went to Sanders....and so far 100% of 'super delegates' have pledged for Clinton. That won't stand, and it is going to cost the Democrats just for trying.

If Sanders was poison to the party in the general election like Trump, this might make sense...but he's NOT. He's BETTER than Clinton in all polls against ALL republican candidates. The only thing that makes sense is they've been paid by Clinton (or her campaign, or the party leaders she's beholding to) to say they're for Clinton to try to make her lead look overwhelming in order to dampen enthusiasm for Sanders. If they actually vote the way they're pledged, the Democratic party will be self destructing just like the Republicans are, because Bernie supporters aren't supporting him because he's a democrat, most support him despite the fact that he's in either party....and those people WILL vote against any of those elected 'super delegates' that vote against the clear will of the people. Those people also mostly won't vote for Clinton...so the whole plan to make her the nominee is doomed to failure from the outset, she absolutely can't win without Sanders' supporters, and she absolutely won't win most of them over.

While we should be outraged by the idea that party leaders know better than the primary voters, Donald Trump is a powerful counter argument. I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans adopt a similar system after this disaster.

One reason it's not yet completely hopeless for Bernie is that superdelegates, even those who say they're "pledged" to one candidate can change their mind at any time. Superdelegates exist to override the will of the people, but the DNC knows that actually doing this would alienate voters.

From an article by Chris Hedges:

Robert Paxton wrote in “The Anatomy of Fascism”:

The language and symbols of an authentic American fascism would, of course, have little to do with the original European models. They would have to be as familiar and reassuring to loyal Americans as the language and symbols of the original fascisms were familiar and reassuring to many Italians and Germans, as [George] Orwell suggested. Hitler and Mussolini, after all, had not tried to seem exotic to their fellow citizens. No swastikas in an American fascism, but Stars and Stripes (or Stars and Bars) and Christian crosses. No fascist salute, but mass recitations of the pledge of allegiance. These symbols contain no whiff of fascism in themselves, of course, but an American fascism would transform them into obligatory litmus tests for detecting the internal enemy.

A pledge to vote for Drumpf "even if there´s hurricanes or whatever" and "that´s good enough" So childishly silly its creepy. I was really worried for those people because they could have pledged something a lot worse just then by pure luck. Semi-random words and phrases in approximate order do not sentences make. What are the odds of more than one hurricane striking simultaneously just as one of those poor people try to cast their vote for Drumpf as they had pledged? What if the evil "whatever" stands in their way?

This has been debunked. The lie is that there were only six coin tosses. There were more than six coin tosses in the Iowa primaries. Bernie won a believable amount.

Another lie I see repeated often is that Hillary already has the votes of the super delegates, The superdelegates have pledged support for HRC but will vote for Bernie if he brings in enough support. The thing to remember is that the establishment wants people to believe the narrative that Hillary has this in the bag.

Oh...and....Feel the Bern!!!

What dirty bastards.
*promote so more people will know to not book with Royal Caribbean until they make a written pledge to never anchor over a live reef again, even if it's legal, and agree to pay to mitigate all the damage they've done here. It can't just be fixed, but there are some things that can be done to help minimize the lasting damage.

Also, a level 3 pledge for 2016: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUsHiBS15Zc

Heck no - I want it on VHS! Or even better - Betamax!!



(Not really. I really really want it on Blu-ray, though, just like the $30 Kickstarter pledge.)