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oritteropo (Member Profile)
No idea. Most of the economic and legal aspects are way above my pay grade.
Edit: After reading the comment sections below those two TAN articles, I'm none the wiser. Good food for thought though.
Edit #2: The more I let it marinade, the more it strikes me as wierd enough to allow the different governments to bamboozle the public into acceptance. Might be just the thing to let everyone keep face while not solving any real problems. The usual dragging along just at the edge of a cliff. Schäuble would strike it down in a second.
Yes, I can even imagine how they would look - http://goo.gl/oQjivN (I hope they kept the printing plates).
I do wonder if there is some obscure euro rule or bailout condition that would prevent it.. but in any case, as with previous governments, unless Syriza sort out tax and corruption they have no chance with or without TANs.
A Message for the Anti-Vaccine Movement
The thing is, even with the mistakes, you're still better off trusting the system.
When wearing seat belts became a legal requirement in the UK a lot of people argued that in some crashes not wearing a seatbelt allowed the person to escape the car faster and not get burned to death, or that it allowed them to be thrown from the vehicle to land safely while the car flew over a cliff and so on and so on. Yes, there will be some cases where the seat belt kills you. Every crash is different. That's not a reason to not wear a seatbelt though. In the vast majority of cases it will be beneficial to you and you don't know what type of crash you're gong to have before you have it.
Doctors make mistakes, yes. But the very fact that people are living longer and longer, and survival rates for just about all diseases are increasing shows that they make way more good calls than bad.
I understand your point that we probably shouldn't just blindly trust what a person in power tells us, but the media (ever keen for controversy) have put across this idea that the doctors have their opinion and you have yours, and they're equally valid. They aren't.
Question the doctors by all means, that's fine, but when you get an answer backed up with mountains and mountains of real evidence you need to accept it. Unless of course you can produce good quality peer review evidence to counter their evidence, then you have my attention.
The big issue here is scientific illiteracy amongst the general population. People are mislead by the press at every turn and don't understand how scientific research works. The fact that in America chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee wrote a book denying climate change is mindblowing. The message it sends about ignoring science is horrific.
I can't help but think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. Until the press stop creating problems like the antivax movement and start reporting science properly we're just going to go further and further down the rabbit hole.
(My post is written to the world at large, I'm pretty sure Digitalfiend understands my point. I just used his post as a bit of a jumping off point for my rant!)
I vaccinated my daughter, but let's not kid ourselves, *general practitioners* are not the end-all-be-all of medical knowledge and, collectively, they make wrong diagnoses and mistakes all the time.
oritteropo (Member Profile)
How indeed.
Draghi's ECB has just made a move and I don't understand why. Come Feb 11th, they will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral, effectively cutting off one of Greece's last two sources of credit. What remains is the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) provided to the Greek Central Bank, through which the entire banking system must now get most of its credit.
Why did they do it? Why now? I don't think it has something to do with the Advocate Generals opinion piece the other day, declaring the ECB's membership in the troika to be a conflict of interest and that fiscal policy is not to be used as a tool to influence poltical decision-making.
Could it be pure idiocy like the time they pulled to plug on Cyprus only to backpeddle shortly after? Or might they be trying to force a move on part of Germany and Greece? "Stop messing around and get your ducks in a row NOW." -- that sorta thing? Is it mere posturing of sorts, a shot across the bow of Greece?
-------
Edit #1
I really don't like this. It looks like disaster, smells like disaster and tastes like disaster. And it's entirely too close for comfort. Are they truly going to turn Greece into a failed-state over principle? The way they casually discuss the lives of nearly 11 million people, and the future of the European Union as well, is bone-chilling.
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In the meantime, Schäuble's meeting with Varoufakis went just as expected, reports indicate. Schäuble won't budge a bit. Negotiations with the troika are mandatory, and fiscal waterboarding must be resumed at once. There will be no compromise, not with him in charge. He'll push Greece off the cliff without blinking even once. Convictions worthy of a Templar, that one. Worth remembering that he admitted taking 100k in bribes from an arms dealer in '94 and still managed to become Minister of Finance. A living legend, just not the kind I'd prefer.
With regards to hyperinflation, most folks over here seem to have forgotten, or maybe they never learned, that Chancellor Brüning's austerity regime led to deflation in 1930-32, pushing unemployment to 23%. What followed was a massive influx in membership and infuence for parties at both ends of the political spectrum, similar to Greece. Except in our case, it wasn't the left (KPD) who won the elections in '32...
I went against your advice and had a look at a DW article on the subject, and I see what you mean, there is quite a big disparity between the accepted position in the article and anything else I've read from outside Germany. I am now also left wondering how on earth any compromise could be made acceptable to German politicians, and then sold to the public. Since Ireland and Portugal are starting to recover despite The Austerity, it's entirely possible that the usual suspects will say "Look! It works!". They do have much more debt now though...
I can understand a certain aversion to excessive inflation, after the chaos caused by hyperinflation in 1923, but you'd think that if they remember that then they'd also remember where that led (and particularly with the rise of Golden Dawn).
Greece's Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis on BBC's Newsnigh
In the current situation, "structural reforms" is used to subsume two entirely different sets of measures.
The first is meant to remove what you previously mentioned: corruption in all the shapes and forms it takes in Greece, from a (intentionally) broken tax system formed over decades of nepotism to a bankrupt national media in the hands of oligarchs. The institutions of the Greek state are precisely what you expect when a country has been run by four families (Papandreou, Samaras, Mitsotakis, Karamanlis) for basically five decades.
This kind of structural reform is part of Syriza's program. Like you said, it'll be hard work and they might very well fail. They'll have only weeks, maybe a few months to undo significant parts of what has grown over half a century. It's not fair, but that's what it is.
The second kind of "structural reform" is meant to increase competitiveness, generally speaking, and a reduction of the public sector. In case of Greece, this included the slashing of wages, pensions, benefits, public employment. The economic and social results are part of just about every article these days, so I won't mention them again. A Great Depression, as predicted.
That's the sort of "structural reforms" Syriza wants to undo. And it's the sort that is expected of Spain, Italy and France as well, which, if done, would probably throw the entire continent into a Great Depression.
I'd go so far as to call any demand to increase competitiveness to German levels madness. Germany gained its competitiveness by 15 years of beggar-thy-neighbour economics, undercutting the agreed upon target of ~2% inflation (read: 2% growth of unit labour costs) the entire time. France played by the rules, was on target the entire time, and is now expected to suffer for it. Only Greece was significantly above target, and are now slightly below target. That's only halfway, yet already more than any democratic country can take.
They could have spread the adjustment out over 20 years, with Germany running above average ULC growth, but decided to throw Greece (and to a lesser degree Spain) off a cliff instead.
So where are we now? Debt rose, GDP crashed, debt as percentage of GDP skyrocketed. That's a fail. Social situation is miserable, health care system basically collapsed, reducing Greece to North African standards. That's a fail.
Those are not reforms to allow Greece to function independently. Those are reforms to throw the Greek population into misery, with ever increasing likeliness of radical solutions (eg Golden Dawn, who are eagerly hoping for a failure of Syriza).
So yes, almost every nation in Europe needs reforms of one sort or another. But using austerity as a rod to beat discipline into supposedly sovereign nations is just about the shortest way imaginable to blow up the Eurozone. Inflicting this amount of pain on people against their will does not work in democratic countries, and the rise of Syriza, Podemos, Sinn Féin, the SNP and the Greens as well as the surge of popularity for Front National and Golden Dawn are clear indicators that the current form of politics cannot be sustained.
Force austerity on France and Le Pen wins the election.
Meaningful reforms that are to increase Europe's "prosperity" would have the support of the people. And reforms are definatly needed, given that the Eurozone is in its fifth year of stagnation, with many countries suffering from both a recession and deflation. A European Union without increasing prosperity for the masses will not last long, I'm sure of it. And a European Union that intentionally causes Great Depressions wouldn't be worth having anyway.
Yet after everything is said and done, I believe you are still absolutely correct in saying that the pro-austerity states won't blink.
Which is what makes it interesting, really. Greece might be able to take a default. They run a primary surplus and most (90%+) of the funds went to foreign banks, the ECB and the IMF anyway, or were used to stabilize the banking system. The people got bugger all. But the Greek banking system would collapse without access to the European system.
Which raises the question: would the pro-austerity states risk a collapse of the Greek banking system and everything it entails? Spanish banks would follow in a heartbeat.
As for the morality of it (they elected those governments, they deserved it): I don't believe in collective punishment, especially not the kind that cripples an entire generation, which is what years of 50+% youth unemployment and a failing educational system does.
My own country, Germany, in particular gets no sympathy from me in this case. Parts of our system were intentionally reformed to channel funds into the market, knowing full well that there was nowhere near enough demand for credit to soak up the surplus savings, nowhere near enough reliable debtors to generate a reasonable return of investment without generating bubbles, be it real estate or financial. They were looking for debtors, and if all it took was turning a blind eye to the painfully obvious longterm problems it would create in Southern Europe, they were more than eager to play along.
The simple truth from the point of view of Germany and other austerity backing Nordic countries is if they buy their loans (and in effect transfer money to Greece) without austerity stipulations, there will be no pressure or guarantee that structural reforms that allow Greece to function independently will ever be implemented.
Bill Nye makes fun of Neil deGrasse Tyson's reply to Dawkins
I think Tyson was actually stoned or otherwise impaired, and Nye was calling him out. Watch his behaviour from the start imagining he's smoked a big bowl before going on stage.
His statements are related, but really not logically connected. He overexplains things people already agree on. His statements seem profound and philosophical to him, but not to anyone else. He is unaware of his physical space (his arms). He loses his place in his thoughts and has to go back and work them out before he can continue... or maybe he just says something else at random, like, "...there is no such thing as consciousness at all..." to save face because his initial train of thought plunged off a cliff.
Luckily, his car hit that telegraph pole...
Tags for this video have been changed from 'Rally driving, Monte Carlo, Cliff Edge, Short, Car, Skoda, Octavia' to 'Rally Driving, Race, Monte Carlo, Cliff Edge, Short, Car, Skoda, Octavia' - edited by calvados
Luckily, his car hit that telegraph pole...
Tags for this video have been changed from 'Rally driving, Monte Carlo, Cliff Edge, Short' to 'Rally driving, Monte Carlo, Cliff Edge, Short, Car, Skoda, Octavia' - edited by calvados
Left hand free
Looks like this was filmed in and around Austin, TX
Rope swing / Cliff jumping : http://krausesprings.net/
Top Notch : http://topnotchaustin.com/ - Made famous by Dazed and Confused
Ginny’s Little Longhorn Saloon : http://youtu.be/dOmQ0WSUuBI - Home of the world famous Chicken Shit Bingo and free chili dogs.
Plus one of the many toobing rivers around the area.
Bill Burr - Helicopter Tours (2014)
There are plenty of bridges and cliffs out there he could have jumped from and not made someone feel complicit in their suicide.
Pretty shitty, yes. One should not make their last act on earth one that screws someone else up permanently.
Am I the only one thinking that that was a shitty thing to do to the helicopter pilot.
Pregnant Woman Blasts Antiabortion Protesters Outside Clinic
I don't understand what you mean about the police.
Unfortunately, recently, much more effective opposition to freedom of choice has come in the form of ridiculously transparently designed, unscientific, non-medical laws requiring completely un-needed expensive medical equipment and irrelevant abilities (like 'admitting privilege' at the nearest hospital, as if the hospital won't take an emergency patient without a Dr. 'admitting' them).
I have never heard of any campaign to sabotage execution machines or assassinate executioners or wardens. I guess THAT kind of "state sanctioned murder" is OK, but the kind science and law has repeatedly and conclusively said is NOT murder... people involved in that get threatened, harassed, and sometimes murdered themselves....by the "anti-murder" people. WHAT?!? I am glad that most of those people do lack the 'courage of their convictions' as you put it.
Ahhh, but aren't these actions are diametrically opposed to these people's stated ideology, of love and tolerance for other people's ideas and customs?...and doesn't giving to Caesar what is Caesar's means following the law (as I've had it described), and thou shall not kill mean no murdering Doctors...ever? (I'm assuming they are a Christian group, if this one isn't, then ascribe my comments to those that are)
What if others fervently believe the Greeks were correct, and it's really proper to not consider a baby a person until they are one year old, until then it's fine to just leave them outside to die or toss them off a cliff? (I'm not really saying that we should go back to that, I'm just pointing out that there are extremes on the 'pro-choice' or 'anti-unwanted children' side with historical and religious context to back them up). We would say it's fine to hold that ideology (well, legal to hold that ideology, maybe not fine), but certainly not legal or fine to act on it.
I feel that it's not meaningless to criticize a person's inappropriate actions, no matter the 'reason' for them, if it's backed up with consequence. Most people, as you noted, don't have the 'strength of their convictions' to risk going to jail, or even public ridicule for acting inappropriately, even if they sincerely believe it's for a good reason.
Aren't the police complicit in this scenario? Historically, effective opposition to state-sanctioned murder often takes the form of campaigns of sabotage and assassination. We ought to be grateful pro-lifers generally lack the courage of their convictions.
It's meaningless to criticise a person's actions when they fall in line with their ideology. Whatever you see in the video, as well as much more extreme measures besides, is totally justified if the pro-life position is correct.
Don't Tell Em (Obamacare version)
The left will keep their blinders on. Better said would be keep their heads in the sand.
Nope nothing to see here. Keep moving forward off the cliff in in blind loyalty.
Just the racist right with their boogie man bogus crap.
Vemödalen: The Fear That Everything Has Already Been Done
Pontius Pilate: You're a funny guy Judas, I like you. That's why I'm going to kill you last.
(later)
Pontius Pilate: Where is she, Judas?
Judas: Kiss my ass!
Pontius Pilate: I can't hear you!
Judas: I'll say it a little louder, get fucked!
Pontius Pilate: [holds Judas upside-down over a cliff by his leg] Listen, loyalty is very touching. But it is not the most important thing in your life right now! But what IS important is gravity! I have to remind you Judas, this is my weak arm!
Judas: You can't kill me Pontius Pilate! You need me to find your daughter!
Pontius Pilate: Where is she?
Judas: I don't know. But Jesus knows, I'll take you to where I'm supposed to meet him!
Pontius Pilate: But you won't.
Judas: Why not?
Pontius Pilate: [holds the hotel key he stole from Judas that Jesus is staying at] Because I already know. Remember, Judas, when I promised to kill you last?
Judas: That's right, Pontius Pilate! You did!
Pontius Pilate: I lied.
One of the oldest known texts is a complaint that the ancients had already said everything worth saying, and that dates from almost 5,000 years ago.
Gully goes where you think he shouldn't
When someone gets around to capturing stuff like this with dual GoPro's that can be played back through Oculus Rift, there will be a lot of vomit on PC keyboards.
P.S. 1:46 : Oh look there's a convenient cliff to push the guy with the vuvuzela off of.
Nixie: Wearable Camera That Can Fly
I don't understand, why would they have to bend in multiple directions? it seems they need to be straight or curve in one direction. Did I miss something?
I'm estimating the size, about 6" around one's wrist makes it 6" 'wide', and near 3" 'long'...yes the blades seem about 1.25" diameter. You would know more than I about that being enough, but I do know there are different prop configurations for different applications, perhaps they have an ultra efficient prop and motor pair? There are certainly more powerful motors available, if you're willing to pay for them.
Adding blue tooth is minimal in weight and power drain, and the lag shouldn't be an issue in most applications (I wouldn't try making it run a gauntlet of obstacles though).
Camera batteries are pretty powerful today, allow fast drain, and come in small sizes. Maybe not enough yet, commercially available, but certainly possible to make...if you're willing to pay.
For your issues....
1)super thin spring steel could work, but wouldn't look like the plastic they showed. What's the issue with 'slap bands'? They seem perfect.
2) power is an issue, as is flight time. I feel like early adopters would sacrifice flight/record time for the advantage of size...but only time will tell.
3) object avoidance IS an issue. Likely the solution is to limit it to use where there's no obstruction above it and not too much in front. Slight lag isn't an issue, if it's not moving fast. Return to the object it's centered on should be no problem, it tracks an object to film it, it shouldn't be too hard to return to it. Now, catching it while hanging on a cliff....yeah...that's tough.
4)Does not Go-pro already wirelessly send it's video in real time "HD"? They cost under $400.
I'll agree with you, you would be MUCH better off buying a larger one that works NOW instead of sending money in hopes they come out with this super miniature one. That said, I still think this is possible...just expensive and difficult to make work.
Yeah there are slap bands out there, but they don't work like this is presented to work. The arms would have to bend in multiple dimensions, and then straighten out and be able to provide a stable flying platform. The closest thing I think of for doing something like that is the "bendy" character toys where the metal wire is co-molded inside the body. That is a very heavy solution.
I misspoke on the 2" square, it is 2" x 2", so 4" square. I'm not sure that I agree that theirs is 6" x 3", but even if it is that would mean that the prop size would have to be about 1.25" and that doesn't work for a 6" x 3" vehicle. There isn't enough thrust and the motors at that size don't provide enough RPM's for that kind of weight.
On the electronic side, they show it connecting to a smart phone with video feedback. That means you have to have bluetooth at least, or a 5.4ghz video system if you want more than 30' range. or it has to have a Wifi TX on it. All of those thing require power. Sure it could analyze the video signal to determine subject matter, and provide guidance but you have some very serious issues there. If you do it on board it requires some processor power (More drain), if you do it on the smart phone app it will create lag.
Your phone has over 1,000 mAh in it (1440 in Iphone 5), that is a TON (4-10x) more than what this thing would have. Battery technology may be a big research project right now, but there isn't anything on the horizon that will get them to where they need to be. Most of the tech research is in sub 1C rated batteries for things like full size cars. Something like this needs a 10C rating minimum if not a 20C rating. Unfortunately most of the upcoming technology can not handle drains that fast. Things tend to go "Boom!". When you do something small, and even 6" x 3" is small, you have very serious power vs weight issues. It all comes down to issues of power density, and nothing exists today that will give it to them as they would need..
So right now these guys need to figure out:
1) A new light weight material that can lock rigid but also bend as needed in multiple directions.
2) A new battery technology that allows them to get the power they need, for a 6 axis gyro, 4 motors, control board,a RX, a HD camera and some sort of VTX while reducing weight. How long it powers all of that would be open, but if it is under 10 minutes I think people would be a little disgruntled. Right now people are wanting the video quads to get about 30-45 minutes of flight time on the 5200+mAh batteries.
3) Write code that allows them to analyze video in real time so as to provide object tracking and avoidance without lag while capable of running on a smartphone. It would also need to return to home when the battery runs low. That would be a little tricky on a cliff face, or if you are riding a bike through a forest. Another issue is that they tilt the camera down, they don't say if this is actuated, or done by hand, but it could lead to serious issues with programming object avoidance if you can't see anything above you.
4) Since they show the image as HD on the phone screen, they would also need to come up with a new way to broadcast HD video wirelessly. Right now that system costs $40K and is rather large.
All in all it is a dream product that people are going to get suckered into funding it. Some tech may come out of it that could be monetized, but I don't see the item coming out in this format, at least not in the next 3-5 years. You'd be better off going with AirDog.
Nixie: Wearable Camera That Can Fly
Yeah there are slap bands out there, but they don't work like this is presented to work. The arms would have to bend in multiple dimensions, and then straighten out and be able to provide a stable flying platform. The closest thing I think of for doing something like that is the "bendy" character toys where the metal wire is co-molded inside the body. That is a very heavy solution.
I misspoke on the 2" square, it is 2" x 2", so 4" square. I'm not sure that I agree that theirs is 6" x 3", but even if it is that would mean that the prop size would have to be about 1.25" and that doesn't work for a 6" x 3" vehicle. There isn't enough thrust and the motors at that size don't provide enough RPM's for that kind of weight.
On the electronic side, they show it connecting to a smart phone with video feedback. That means you have to have bluetooth at least, or a 5.4ghz video system if you want more than 30' range. or it has to have a Wifi TX on it. All of those thing require power. Sure it could analyze the video signal to determine subject matter, and provide guidance but you have some very serious issues there. If you do it on board it requires some processor power (More drain), if you do it on the smart phone app it will create lag.
Your phone has over 1,000 mAh in it (1440 in Iphone 5), that is a TON (4-10x) more than what this thing would have. Battery technology may be a big research project right now, but there isn't anything on the horizon that will get them to where they need to be. Most of the tech research is in sub 1C rated batteries for things like full size cars. Something like this needs a 10C rating minimum if not a 20C rating. Unfortunately most of the upcoming technology can not handle drains that fast. Things tend to go "Boom!". When you do something small, and even 6" x 3" is small, you have very serious power vs weight issues. It all comes down to issues of power density, and nothing exists today that will give it to them as they would need..
So right now these guys need to figure out:
1) A new light weight material that can lock rigid but also bend as needed in multiple directions.
2) A new battery technology that allows them to get the power they need, for a 6 axis gyro, 4 motors, control board,a RX, a HD camera and some sort of VTX while reducing weight. How long it powers all of that would be open, but if it is under 10 minutes I think people would be a little disgruntled. Right now people are wanting the video quads to get about 30-45 minutes of flight time on the 5200+mAh batteries.
3) Write code that allows them to analyze video in real time so as to provide object tracking and avoidance without lag while capable of running on a smartphone. It would also need to return to home when the battery runs low. That would be a little tricky on a cliff face, or if you are riding a bike through a forest. Another issue is that they tilt the camera down, they don't say if this is actuated, or done by hand, but it could lead to serious issues with programming object avoidance if you can't see anything above you.
4) Since they show the image as HD on the phone screen, they would also need to come up with a new way to broadcast HD video wirelessly. Right now that system costs $40K and is rather large.
All in all it is a dream product that people are going to get suckered into funding it. Some tech may come out of it that could be monetized, but I don't see the item coming out in this format, at least not in the next 3-5 years. You'd be better off going with AirDog.
Well, perhaps with currently available public domain parts, it's not possible. That doesn't mean it's completely impossible.
The flexible frame might be hard, but there ARE already wristbands that un-bend to make a flat device, they've been around for decades, I recall seeing one in the 90's. Making it support flight might be hard, but not impossible, especially with the small forces this thing provides.
You say there are already 2" square quads out there, this was closer to 18"square(6"X3"), so the 'it's just too small' argument falls flat.
Battery time might be a factor, but a 5 min video is pretty good for now, plenty to prove the concept. Also, battery life is increasing fast.
The camera and GPS in a phone hardly uses any battery power too. These tiny devices are really not hungry enough to make them a power drain problem, at worst they might limit flight time slightly. Also, there's no GPS needed really, it could operate by keeping the subject in frame at approximately the same distance...then it could just follow you through the trees, using the image to avoid obstacles. It would take some computing power, but not an outrageous amount. Perhaps it's paired with a cell phone to do the computing? That part wouldn't be hard.
Again, because the tech isn't available on the market today (and I'm not at all sure that's correct) doesn't mean the tech isn't available to some, or creatable by intelligent people. I just don't see this as that far away.