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Finally a Doctor on the News Talking Fucking Sense

newtboy says...

It's been well known since January if not before that asymptomatic people can transmit Coronavirus. This has been widely reported and warned about publicly in congressional hearings by CDC officials for months.

Whether or not the governor of Georgia really just erased his inexplicable ignorance yesterday, not ordering citizens to stay home is arguably criminal negligence (Criminal negligence refers to a mental state of disregarding known or obvious risks to human life and safety.) and he should go to prison along with any governor that denies the obvious dangers of not issuing a shelter in place order. Remember, the 100000-250000 expected American deaths are the prediction only if the entire country takes social distancing/shelter in place seriously, if just one state refuses and becomes a viral hot zone that number could reach 6000000 or higher.
*quality

Trump Pretends He Never Compared Coronavirus to the Flu

newtboy says...

TL:DW- but Pence is now claiming all the "don't worry, everything's fine, it will just go away, it's not as bad as the average flu and flu shots are protection" talk from Trump was merely optimism....so hundreds of thousands - millions of Americans will die because Trump was optimistic, and based his administration's actions on his optimistic and ignorant pie in the sky high hopes, not the reality he was being told from all sides back in 2019.
Odd, when Clinton based her actions/inactions on an optimistic estimate of the safety of our embassy based on actual intelligence reports, 99% of Republicans wanted her in prison until her public execution because her decisions cost American lives.

Who's optimism cost more American lives? To date, it's Clinton 4-Trump 5500 (expected to rise to a minimum of 100000-250000 in the coming weeks). Trump's optimism is going to be more deadly to America than 9-11, the Iraq war, and the Afghanistan war combined...10-25 times more dead by the most optimistic predictions based on 100% compliance with social distancing and no surprises.
Trump's incompetence has now risen to the level of being the deadliest man in America ever by far. If he's a wartime president like he's labeled himself, these are war crimes. String him up, string him up, string him up......

How Fox News has shifted its coronavirus rhetoric

luxintenebris says...

yeah. it's a blast when it's just talk and no consequences. it was just fun for them, now it's not. how sad for them.

there are predictions that this virus could last into the spring of next year. combine it w/the next flu season this fall and Fox just might have to carry on this tone for over a year.

from anger, venom, and spittle to careful, thoughtful, and measured words? geez. what a loss.

Infectious Disease Expert on the seriousness of Coronavirus

newtboy says...

Compared to the flu at 1.3, that's bad. I'll just have to hope it's on the low end of those estimates, only one order of magnitude worse than a bad flu at spreading, but it's looking worse already.

If a predicted up to (+-)114000000 dead worldwide (3% mortality if only 50% are infected) is the bright side, that's pretty horrific.

If you're right about hospitals being unprepared, and I think you are, the mortality rate will climb. The military should be building temporary medical/quarantine facilities now....and maybe cremation facilities. That was an issue in China.

bobknight33 said:

The rate of spread (Ro) is said to be between 2.5 and 4.

That is the same as saying X to power of 2.5 or 4.


Would be best to shut down any County that is infected. Nip it in the bud.

The infected guy in NC last week got it from Washington state old folks home, Now we have7 official cases and nest week we should be 20+

If we can slow down the rate of spread then the Hospitals can deal with this more effectively. I think this wont happen and facilities will be over burden is short order.


On the bright side this burn through the world in few months.
Hope we all are stand standing then.

Why The Right Wing End Game Is Armageddon

newtboy says...

That depends on which bible you mean....there are many.

Really? Lost to history?! Hardly....lost to the ignorant and uneducated maybe, but even atheists like me know full well Jesus the man was a Jew, and definitely not a European or "white". Roman/Italian artists knew this, but worked for a Roman church so portrayed him in their image.

Genetic purity?! Lol. I guess that means no one has EVER become Jewish, you're either born one by two pure Jewish parents or not. Hardly reality, and would reject nearly every person in Israel (or elsewhere). Just because there is a long standing religious/cultural taboo against marriage outside the culture, it still happens, as does conversion. Racial/genetic purity is a fallacy debunked by genetic testing.

Prophecy is a leap. No prophecy has been correctly interpreted until AFTER the events supposedly prophesied occurred. It's ridiculous to go back after the fact and claim "see, now that I know exactly how to interpret the unclear prophecy I couldn't decipher before, it's a 100% perfect prediction" but never be able to predict the future. That's the same nonsensical logic mediums use.

The second temple was also the third, since the true second temple was originally a rather modest structure constructed by a number of Jewish exile groups returning to the Levant from Babylon under the Achaemenid-appointed governor Zerubbabel. However, during the reign of Herod the Great, the Second Temple was completely refurbished, and the original structure was totally overhauled into the large and magnificent edifices and facades that are more recognizable. Logically, the third temple was the one destroyed by Romans, the second replaced by Herod but the new one was still called the second temple anyway. (To avoid contradicting prophecy? ;-) )

If the dome of the rock, the second most holy place in Islam, is destroyed, expect Jerusalem to follow soon after, as that will definitely start a religious war between nuclear powers.

Herodotus is credited with using the term Palestinian first, in the 5th century BCE as an ethnonym, making no distinction between Arabs, Jews, or other cultures inhabiting of the area. Romans adopted the term as the official administrative name for the region in the 2nd century CE, "Palestine" as a stand-alone term then came into widespread use, printed on coins, in inscriptions and even in rabbinic texts.

I think you are confused about the history, here's a primer...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_and_Judaism_in_the_Land_of_Israel

The area was populated by various people's including Jews until the Jewish–Roman wars of 66–136 CE, during which the Romans expelled most of the Jews from the area (well, really they arguably left voluntarily because they refused to be second class citizens barred from practicing their religion freely) and replaced it with the Roman province of Syria Palaestina, the Arabs were already there, not invaders or immigrants. When Assyrians (Mesopotamians) invaded in circa 722 BCE, they ruled empirically, meaning only the Jewish ruling elite left, returning in 538 BCE under Cyrus the Great....so no, the Arabs didn't just settle after the Jews were dispersed.

It's patently ridiculous to say the Arab nations were unprovoked, Jewish illegal immigration led to a hostile takeover of the region by illegal immigrants with rapid expansion of their territories into their neighbors continuing through today. The Jews defeated the Arabs thanks to American backing and exponentially better hardware. It was only their right if might makes right, and the Arab nations are under no obligation to let them keep what they stole any more than the Jews were obligated to let the Arab nations retain control in the first place. If Iran, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or any combination can take it, by your logic they have every right to do so.

I do agree, in the end there will be more conflict until the area becomes uninhabitable....largely because every religion's prophecies end with them in control, and no one wants to admit it's all nonsensical iron age tribalism at work.

Why The Right Wing End Game Is Armageddon

shinyblurry says...

The bible was written almost exclusively by Jews, both the Old and New Testament. Jesus was a Jew and so were most of His apostles. The events of the majority of the books in the bible happened in Israel. Christianity is a Jewish religion. So, it shouldn't really surprise anyone that the bible has a lot to say about the Jews. Where they came from, how they got there, and what happens to them in the future.

Christian support for the Jews is a relatively new phenomenon. During the reign of the Catholic church, Jews were persecuted by Catholics and forced to convert to Christianity. The Jewishness of Jesus was lost to history; this is why you see much of the art during the middle ages depicting the Lord as a European man.

What changed is that the Jews returned to the land of Israel in 1948, something that many scholars of time past assumed was impossible. The general teaching was that God had broken His covenant with the Jewish people because they rejected Christ and that the church was now the new Israel. This is called replacement theology.

Yet, the Jews did return to their own land, a unique event in all of history. Never before had a people group been displaced from their own country, scattered all over the world for thousands of years, and then regathered to their original land with their cultural and genetic purity intact. This is a true miracle which anyone can plainly see is evidence of the hand of God working in the Earth on behalf of His chosen people.

The video makes it seem like the idea of Israel being integral to end times prophecy is some kind of leap, yet anyone who has studied the bible seriously knows that nearly everything predicted about the end times revolves around Israel, and particularly Jerusalem. There are numerous prophecies in the Old Testament stating plainly that God will scatter His people and gather them back to Israel in the last days.

The scripture predicts that the Jews will build a third temple. At this moment the Dome of the Rock, the golden domed building you see in photographs of Jerusalem, stands in the place where the third temple must be built. You could sum up the entire tension in the middle east in two words: "Temple Mount".

Not only are the Jews ready to rebuild their temple in a moments notice, they have created all of the implements of the temple and have been training priests to serve in the temple. The scripture declares that for end times prophecy to be fulfilled there must be a third temple. I can confidently predict that this will happen sometime in the future and the Dome of the Rock most likely be destroyed.

I also wanted to mention one other thing. The name "Palestine" was given to the area by the Romans. The Palestinians are not a people group, they are Arabs who settled in the area after the Jews were dispersed around the world. The video really does you a disservice by neglecting to mention the fact that it was the Arab nations that attacked Israel unprovoked on multiple occasions and the Jews against all odds defeated them. It was their right to take that territory and they are under no obligation to return it.

In the end, there will be much more conflict in the middle east, all revolving around the Jews and Jerusalem in some way. You may doubt the scripture but you will see this unfold with your very eyes. One day a charismatic man will come on the scene who will negotiate a peace in the middle east between the Jews and the nations of the world. He will seem at first to be someone who can solve all of our problems but eventually he will establish a one world order and rule the world with an iron fist. He will go into the Jewish temple and declare himself to be God. This is who the bible calls the Antichrist.

So, if you want to know where we are at in the end times, watch Israel and Jerusalem. Jerusalem is Gods prophetic time clock. When you see the Dome of the Rock being replaced by the temple, know the Lord is near, even at the doors.

Trump Turns Our Military Into Mercenaries

newtboy says...

More like selling ass, like he thinks he's a pimp and America is his bottom bitch. He's ok with any degradation of our nation if it makes money. He's incapable of measuring by or even comprehending any other metric.

Speaking of money, how's the deficit? How about the national debt? How much has he increased spending on rehabbing U.S. infrastructure? Where's my (much lower) tax bill on a 3x5" card?
What's the state of our union? It's looking fragile and tattered, so much that his cultists threaten to go to war with America if he's removed, even by losing the election. These are a few ways he's kicking ass for our enemies while abandoning or attacking multiple allies, weakening the U.S. further.

Another red tsunami 2020....just like the last two you predicted when republicans polled much higher and Trump hadn't recently admitted to stealing millions from veterans under oath. Can't wait.

bobknight33 said:

Mr Trump kicking ASS.

Landslide 2020

Why The Elevator Shaft Was Invented Before The Elevator

greatgooglymoogly says...

Clickbait title. Freight elevators had existed for many years, the building designer simply predicted there would be a safe passenger elevator invented soon enough to put an elevator shaft(round one!) into his new building. He was right, but the key is he wasn't predicting the invention of the elevator as the title implies.

Anti-Trump Books Disappearing From Idaho Library

Boondocks predicted the chicken sandwich wars

newtboy says...

Sure, the world has had fire since it's been a planet, but if I told you in 1979 that in the next 5 years both the world's funniest comedian and most popular pop star would survive catching themselves on fire, that's still a miraculously accurate prediction.

Chicken restaurant chain releases new chicken sandwich, runs out, and causes multiple riots was hardly foreseeable, imo....at least not the first time. I kind of expected it for the reboot, granted.

Sagemind said:

I don't think it was "predicted"
The world's been burning since the world's been turning!"
"Same as it ever was!"

Boondocks predicted the chicken sandwich wars

Mordhaus (Member Profile)

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

newtboy says...

I don't have time today, but if memory serves, ar4 temperature/ sea level prediction was 30-60% higher than ar3, ar5 less of a change, but still higher than ar4, and yesterday it went up another 10% with the intermediate report, expected to rise again in the 2021 report. I found it by accident and can't find it this morning, and I'm out of free time already today.

It's the factual, scientifically likely outcome. There is no "right" approach, indeed there's no working solution at all.

Yes, different again on two NOAA sites. They don't make it easy to find and compare accurately reported data.

I meant it was odd because they listed the 2018 data as if it was the highest readings, I understand it's not a constant rise.

bcglorf said:

@newtboy,

"Stupid to use all these differing sets, that only adds confusion to an already technical and confusing topic."

I'm just glad they stick to metric, with sea level rise you don't even get that .

"No matter what, it's incontrovertible that every iteration of the IPCC reports has drastically raised their damage estimates (temp, sea level) and sped up the timetable from the previous report."

At least temperature wise the AR1 report had higher temperatures, and definitely higher worst case projection scenarios for temp than the latest. I can't say I checked their sea level projections, though typically they're other projections have followed on using their temps as the baseline for the other stuff and thus they track together. That is to say, if you can point me a source that reliably claims otherwise I might go check, but currently what I have checked tells me otherwise.

"I'll take the less conservative NOAA estimates and go farther to assume they over estimate humanity and underestimate feedback loops and unknowns and believe we are bound to make it worse than they imagine."

Which is fine, I only object if that gets characterized as the factually scientific 'right' approach.

"The NOAA .83C number was compared to average annual global temperatures 1901-2000...and oddly enough is lower than 2017's measurements."

Which is yet another source and calibration period from what I found. The 1901-2000 very, very roughly speaking can be thought of as centered on 1950, so in that fuzzy feeling sense not surprising it's 0C is colder than the IPCC centered on the nineties.

The source on current instrumental I went against is below:
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

As for 2018 being cooler than 2017, that's pretty normal. 1996/1997 were the hottest years on record for a pretty long time before things swung back up. It's entirely possible we stay below the recent high years for another bunch of years before continuing to creep up. Same as a particularly cold day isn't 'evidence', the decadal and even century averages are where the signal comes out of the noise.

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

newtboy says...

Lol. Their chart predicts below .5C by 2020, we reached .83C last year. Stopping there.

bcglorf said:

@newtboy,

"Every IPCC report has vastly underestimated their projections"
Hogwash

IPCC AR5 predictions we can go check out are here: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf

Surface temp is in Fig. 11.9 page 981. They only graph for their 'middle' 4.5 case, not the worst 8.5 case that you call wildly optimistic. You can see even at the time they graphed it, the instrumental record sat on the extreme cold end of their projections, almost threatening to leave the margins of error. If you take today's today for 2019 and check it out we are sitting about dead center on their projected path. Doesn't seem like current temperature data shows their 'middle' case scenario underestimating anything, let alone their worst case.


If you look at the same for sea level rise in AR5 here:
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf

You can look for fig 13.11 on page 1181. Again, it shows projections approx 100mm sea level rise from 2000-2020, which more or less matches the instrumental record as we approach 2020 to verify. Again, not grossly underestimating.

The sea level rise is especially important to your alarms over Greenland being grossly underestimated by the IPCC. If they did grossly underestimate Greenland, it seems likely they also grossly overestimated something else if they more or less are on track with the overall sea level projections.

Again, if you just cherry pick a couple results and declare everything the IPCC did has been proven to over/under estimate things so they must be ignored, you aren't helping.

Grreta Thunberg's Speech to World Leaders at UN

bcglorf says...

@newtboy,

"Every IPCC report has vastly underestimated their projections"
Hogwash

IPCC AR5 predictions we can go check out are here: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf

Surface temp is in Fig. 11.9 page 981. They only graph for their 'middle' 4.5 case, not the worst 8.5 case that you call wildly optimistic. You can see even at the time they graphed it, the instrumental record sat on the extreme cold end of their projections, almost threatening to leave the margins of error. If you take today's today for 2019 and check it out we are sitting about dead center on their projected path. Doesn't seem like current temperature data shows their 'middle' case scenario underestimating anything, let alone their worst case.


If you look at the same for sea level rise in AR5 here:
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf

You can look for fig 13.11 on page 1181. Again, it shows projections approx 100mm sea level rise from 2000-2020, which more or less matches the instrumental record as we approach 2020 to verify. Again, not grossly underestimating.

The sea level rise is especially important to your alarms over Greenland being grossly underestimated by the IPCC. If they did grossly underestimate Greenland, it seems likely they also grossly overestimated something else if they more or less are on track with the overall sea level projections.

Again, if you just cherry pick a couple results and declare everything the IPCC did has been proven to over/under estimate things so they must be ignored, you aren't helping.



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