Survivor Bias

YouTube description:

Consider that the sample you observe is incomplete, and biased in a particular way.
oritteroposays...

I quite enjoyed the talk, with the minor quibble that his example about WWII bombers was really referencing the work of Abraham Wald (who was US based by then) and the study was by the US Center for Naval Analyses rather than being British.

notarobotsaid:

*asia, *science *philosophy

Interesting comment around 4:35.

bareboards2says...

I'm not religious, and I have a lot of religious relatives. I hear "we were blessed", "what a blessing", etc, a LOT.

I picked it up as a way of showing gratitude to my circumstances. However, it grated at me, the more I said it.

Now I say -- "I'm lucky."

I'm lucky.

And some people aren't.

Unsung_Herosays...

I feel hard work and determination creates more "chances" for you to "get lucky."

The person striving to improve himself or his surroundings will generally come into contact with more opportunities. More so than the person that decides, "Everything is pure luck, why put in effort?" and puts forth the bare minimum.

ChaosEnginesays...

Great video. I really wish people understood this concept better.

Any of this sound familiar?
"Kids these days are too soft. When we were kids, we rode bikes without helmets, sat in the front seat of cars, <insert outer dangerous activity> and WE WERE FINE"

Of course, you were fine; the fact that you're here to tell that anecdote is proof of that. The kids who died in auto accidents generally don't get to tell their stories.

In terms of what this means for our day to day lives? You can't just look at the winners and copy what they did. You have to look at the losers and avoid what they did.

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