Odds of Dying

LadyBugsays...

odds of dying of the bird flu 1:100,000?!?! did no one catch that? complete and utter rubbish!

"According to Reuters, the reported deaths from Bird Flu in Southeast Asia stands at around 60 people.

I checked the CIA World Factbook for population statistics. There are an estimated 1,646,803,377 people in Southeast Asia. That's over one point six BILLION.

Sixty out of 1.6 BILLION people. According to my Excel spreadsheet, that gives you odds of about 1 in 27,000,000 of dying from the Bird Flu."

and with the quick mention of 'conspiracy' in this little short ... i really have to question the motives of making such a video.

Wumpussays...

I really have no idea how these mathematicians come up with thesernformulas. Naturally there are things and events in this world that are beyond our control, we usually attribute these events as acts of God since we have no rational explanation or understanding of these events and God is the one thing in the universe that defies explanation or a full understanding.

The odds of anything happening at all fluctuate depending on the circumstances and conditions at the time of the event. Everyday we evaluate our actions and make our descions based our preception of the odds something bad will happen and we decide what risks we are willing to take.

The very end of the clip is absolutely correct. The odds of dying are 1:1. Being alive carries with it a 100% chance of death.

cobaltsays...

The odds of dying by bird flu could be higher if they take into account more than simply the latest strain which humans can catch. The figure may also factor in the chance that with each new infection it increases the change of the virus mutating to become contagious amon humans. The people who work out these odds are scary in the amoun of seperate factors that they can think of.

rembarsays...

Scientists generally DON'T give such simplified statistics as the chance of dying of bird flu, because mitigating factors as, oh, say the failure of a government(s) to sponsor the continual development of vaccines to treat the flu can be very influential on those statistics. Some epidemiologists spend their entire careers developing models to predict the spread of diseases, and the distributions of risks of infection, sickness, and death among populations based on dozens or even hundreds of personal factors (age, income, marital status, race, gender, etc.), societal factors (population density, availability of health professionals, effects of mass panic), disease factors (incubation time, time until death or recovery, mortality rate, infection rate), and other factors (availability and efficacy of a vaccine, availability of treatments), and yet these scientists readily admit that their models are never correct, just useful in predictions and development of public health policies.

Of course, all of this work is then ignored by politicians and the media because "1:100,000 chance of dying of bird flu" is easier to quote than the truth.

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