Is this the end of China's economic bubble?

I wonder what the forces are behind such a housing bubble, and the scale of it compared to China's population of 1.3 billion. Also, it seems crazy that local governments are supporting such projects, while the central government is consistently trying to slow its economy and prevent such bubbles from forming : http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/business/global/06yuan.html

rottenseed

says...

Wow, their poor, slum-living residents are a lot more educated than ours...

Drachen_Jager says...

>> ^mentality:

I wonder what the forces are behind such a housing bubble, and the scale of it compared to China's population of 1.3 billion. Also, it seems crazy that local governments are supporting such projects, while the central government is consistently trying to slow its economy and prevent such bubbles from forming : http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/06/business/global/06yuan.html

The scale is relative to the economy, not the population. Considering I have seen estimates that there are 96 million of those 'investment' condos sitting empty in China right now I'd say the fallout will put them back to the stone age. That guy living with one faucet among ten households will consider himself lucky compared to his neighbours.

kceaton1

says...

I was going to say that this is terrible for the Chinese government as saving face is their time honored tradition; I'm glad this is happening and I'll tell you why.

Apparently, Chinese citizens have figured out that getting a lot of "things" certainly will not make you happy. In fact it'll turn into what we have here. You MUST work. You MUST have money. You MUST be a tax-paying consumer. You MUST be beholden to the rich.

I for one (heh) commend China's either lucky or smart citizenry for their decisions about their lives and whether they wish to become involved in the stupid game that is consumerism (as only the rich win, we just pay more here and there and remain "balanced" for THEIR needs...).

GeeSussFreeK

says...

So, all the money they have earned off of bailing us out of a housing bubble, they invested in their own...nice?! If somethings worth doing wrong, it's worth overdoing wrong!

mentality

says...

>> ^Drachen_Jager:

>> The scale is relative to the economy, not the population. Considering I have seen estimates that there are 96 million of those 'investment' condos sitting empty in China right now I'd say the fallout will put them back to the stone age. That guy living with one faucet among ten households will consider himself lucky compared to his neighbours.

I'd really like to see how the analysts are getting their numbers. The analyst in the video going "It is said that there are 64 million empty apartments" doesn't sound very convincing. Also, I wonder just who is investing in these properties, and who's going to be hurt the worst when the bubble pops. In any case, that guy with one faucet is living in Beijing, and he's not going to be able to afford housing on his salary even if there were no bubble. That's like trying to buy a place in Manhattan on your minimum wage from McD's.

Drachen_Jager says...

@mentality

It is really hard to say exactly where the figures come from. The 64.5 million 'empty' figure is the supposed number of apartments which registered zero power consumption according to a leaked report. China's power company denies that, but then of course they would, whether it's true or not.

Just one city with 9 million vacant homes! There's another that's built for 2.5 million which is empty except for construction workers and a few shopkeepers and such to support them in Tibet. I've seen a slideshow of the empty cities in China, it's pretty scary. You don't have to add too many empty apartments in cities with actual populations, like Beijing, to get up to 64 million.

I am not certain that any of those numbers are true. Who can be with China's tight grip on such information. But I believe it. I have seen enough evidence that I have little doubt. 64 million is probably a lowball estimate.