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NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

bcglorf says...

Media(and even some of the vocal scientists trying to urge action) have been guilty of overstating confidence in climate modelling. Which is more or less what they are agreeing on in the video.

The IPCC summary of state of the art climate modelling, and virtually ALL published papers on various climate models agree that the unknown and poorly modelled aspects of our climate are larger than the known influence of CO2.

That is to say, the physical modelling largely operates on energy in and out from the Sun and then playing out how changes in that energy balance operate. The thing is, that energy budget is enormous, and the number of factors at play are even larger and dynamic to make it more fun. The influence of CO2 in the energy budget is one of the relatively straightforward elements, and so we've got a pretty good and confident assessment of how much it impacts energy balance. The problem with climate modelling, is that the CO2 impact is smaller than the errors and unknowns in many other factors in the model including clouds.

Which is all saying that our climate modelling is hard, and even though we know CO2 changes are pushing the energy balance up, our modelling of the energy balance is still not good enough to accurately predict energy balance changes. That means we've got a giant 'all other things being equal' qualifier on model projections because if cloud behaviour changes based on temperature, we KNOW that our errors there are larger than the influence of CO2.

Modellers have been trying to draw attention to this nuance, but it's been deemed inconvenient to persuading the public to act and thus ignored by many pushing for action. The almost inevitable side effect though is that over time the reality of the models inaccuracy will play out and the public is gonna be asking why 'science' was wrong.

Tesla Demo of Tesla Bot GEN 2

spawnflagger says...

IANAL but I think internal prototype names can be anything - it's only if they bring it to market that there could be some chance of consumer "confusion".
I'm still waiting to see the lawsuit from Microsoft, who has owned the "X" trademark for many years.
Also, Elon has been promising such a robot for years - at least it's not a human in a robot costume this time... but could easily be CG. I'll believe it when I see some 3rd party people putting it through its paces. (yes, I was skeptical of the Boston Dynamics videos as well until they let others in to film)

newtboy said:

I hope Hasbro and Takara Tomy and Paramount and Dreamworks made them pay through the nose for using their IP, but my guess is Elon just did it without permission.
I can find no press release or documentation that Tesla bought the rights to Bumblebee or Optimus Prime or any transformers robots. Looks like theft.

Hasbro and Takara Tomy and Paramount should sue the pants off of him for blatantly stealing their IP for advertising purposes.

Fuck you Elon, you’re a thief and a liar.

ant (Member Profile)

ant (Member Profile)

Tesla Reveals Robot at AI Day 2022 (HIGHLIGHTS)

newtboy says...

If you really believe their claim here that the first untethered walking test was done at a press conference in public, I have some hurricane proof property in Ft Meyers to sell you.

Under $20k…I hope that’s not as overly optimistic as the semi truck specs were.

It’s pretty far behind Boston Dynamics in ability, they can do flips, hop, even dance. I hope the production version is all they claim, but I’m not holding my breath.

Exclusive Look At New Killer Drone Small Enough To Fit In

spawnflagger says...

Even Amazon Delivery Drones could be re-purposed to drop grenades from an altitude high enough to be inaudible & hard to see.

There were several examples of near-future dystopian sci-fi use of killer drones on Black Mirror...
1 was a small flying kamikaze drone that had facial recognition and a shape charge just big enough to penetrate the targets skull.
Other was Boston-Dynamics-style "dog" robot that had a gun embedded into it's front "paw" and was programmed to kill all humans. Both terrifying and hopefully never deployed IRL.

What Makes This Song Great? QUEEN Bohemian Rhapsody

BSR says...

What is a good song to test audio quality?
“Bohemian Rhapsody” is one of the greatest songs of all time, and the dynamic changes throughout the song make it great for sound system tests as well.

Robot Parkour

Robot Parkour

Latest Flight Testing!

Latest Flight Testing!

Boston Dynamics | Spots got an arm!

mysdrial says...

What they don't tell you is that, now that Spot has an arm, they did all the camera work too...after eliminating the unnecessary and wasteful human component of Boston Dynamics.

Boston Dynamics Dancing Robots

Digitalfiend says...

It's amazing how far Boston Dynamics has come with these robots.
The level of engineering that goes into these is incredible - they've become so good it's almost hard to appreciate just how difficult it is to balance a bipedal robot, never mind making one dance!

Your Dog thinking You're the "Alpha" is NOT a Real Thing

newtboy says...

So, sounds to me like the alpha male theory is correct, just not the reasons why people think one becomes alpha and another doesn't.
Aggression and force are not what makes an alpha, strength, intelligence, and a calming temperament seem to be more representative of alpha traits.
Also, being the guy who feeds them makes a huge difference in the dynamic.
On top of that, when they're pups, I hold their nose/snout in my mouth gently but firmly. That's one way canines assert dominance without aggression or fear. I don't recall where I learned that, but seems to work.

I've never bullied my dogs into submission, I've only used positive reinforcement to train them, but when I command them I'm firm and there's never been any question about who is the alpha. They might run through a door before me, but they listen and obey when commanded, and have never once been aggressive towards me or challenged my authority, I'm on my fourth dog.
There's a definite difference in how they react to my wife, who would be beta in this scenario. They listen to her, but not as well and they take their time when she calls them.

newtboy (Member Profile)



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