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NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

bcglorf says...

Media(and even some of the vocal scientists trying to urge action) have been guilty of overstating confidence in climate modelling. Which is more or less what they are agreeing on in the video.

The IPCC summary of state of the art climate modelling, and virtually ALL published papers on various climate models agree that the unknown and poorly modelled aspects of our climate are larger than the known influence of CO2.

That is to say, the physical modelling largely operates on energy in and out from the Sun and then playing out how changes in that energy balance operate. The thing is, that energy budget is enormous, and the number of factors at play are even larger and dynamic to make it more fun. The influence of CO2 in the energy budget is one of the relatively straightforward elements, and so we've got a pretty good and confident assessment of how much it impacts energy balance. The problem with climate modelling, is that the CO2 impact is smaller than the errors and unknowns in many other factors in the model including clouds.

Which is all saying that our climate modelling is hard, and even though we know CO2 changes are pushing the energy balance up, our modelling of the energy balance is still not good enough to accurately predict energy balance changes. That means we've got a giant 'all other things being equal' qualifier on model projections because if cloud behaviour changes based on temperature, we KNOW that our errors there are larger than the influence of CO2.

Modellers have been trying to draw attention to this nuance, but it's been deemed inconvenient to persuading the public to act and thus ignored by many pushing for action. The almost inevitable side effect though is that over time the reality of the models inaccuracy will play out and the public is gonna be asking why 'science' was wrong.

Palestinian UN Ambassador At UN

bcglorf says...

"Who the fuck cares what the reason they wanted to invadeflee was?"

Characterization matters a little here, no?

"They had a right to refugee status there, not to take control and possession by force"

Which is at the heart of things.

The Arab narrative is that Jews arrived guns loaded and set about pillaging, killing and invading as soon as they had sufficient numbers, while the poor domestic Arab population had only been trying to assist and welcome in the refugees...

Which is ahistorical propaganda.

The reality is that for the most part, the European Jews arriving in Palestine were refugees and acting like refugees. Meaning they mostly just wanted to be able to provide food, shelter and safety for the families, just like everyone else. Most of them tried to set about doing this by legally purchasing land.

Lots of the local Arabs similarly were content to get along.

At that same time though, there were hardcore Zionists among the Jewish arrivals AND there were xenophobic elements willing to use violence within the Arab population too.

The tensions rose as the populations rose, but largely as a result of a large people being displaced, and NOT as the planned invasion you describe. The local Arab population started to band together to refuse to work, trade or sell to Jews. Violence broke out instigated separately on smallish scales by BOTH sides. Escalating violence followed, again back and forth between sides.

I'm in a camp that has a hard time blaming either the domestic Arab population for distress at the huge influx of refugees, nor for the European Jewish people having a low tolerance for discrimination and violence directed there way solely for being Jewish.

I see it as a huge mess, but with two large populations of Jewish and Arab people in Palestine acting not terribly unreasonably under circumstances of extreme pressure.

I think it's lazy and convenient to just declare 'invasion' so that you can simplify it all down to right/wrong and good guy/bad guy....

Jason Voorhees preparing for Friday, the 13th.

noims says...

Bear in mind that you can't really compare it to the next generation like Nightmare on Elm St, Poltergeist etc. since they're already moving away from the straight-up slasher - more complex plots, adding mainstream elements like humour, and far bigger budgets.

The comparison to Halloween is reasonable since it really was a Halloween wannabe, but it's a bit like saying you're not as smart as Einstein.

Now, if you really want to diss the film, compare it to Evil Dead which came out only a year later on a smaller budget.

ant said:

I finally watched it last night. It wasn't good as Halloween, Nightmare on Elm St., etc.

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

newtboy says...

😂 Hunter, not Joe. 😂
Sucker. That’s the best you’ve got? Quit now in shame. Hunter isn’t a politician, Trump is.

“Tool and Propagandist” Says the guy who still unflinchingly supports a serial rapist, pedophile, convicted charity thief who stole from the needy including disabled vets to the extent he’s permanently barred from any involvement with any charities, and repeated multiple million dollar fraud and thief who tried to foment a coup and sold classified state secrets, even repeatedly handing top secret highly classified military secrets to foreign powers, sometimes for cash and sometimes for nothing more than attention. 😂
I don’t post ridiculous fantasy propaganda claiming it’s news, then pretend I never did that when invariably it’s proven to be nonsense slander you made up or intentionally “misunderstood” and just refuse to acknowledge you’ve ever been wrong when, in fact, you’ve almost never been correct, not even a little bit. I provide statistics, facts, and reliable references where those facts and numbers come from, you offer at your best random internet trolls making up nonsense to trigger your hatred of the “other”…also called propaganda.

Yes, Hunter had a drug problem 5-7 years ago after his brother died…and he went broke…this is not news, it never was.

Trump has a current rape problem, a lying (slander) problem, multiple felony bank and tax fraud problems, felony business fraud problems, serious treason problems, election fraud problems, Trump also pays for sex (WAY more than Hunter ever did and every time he gets some) and is also broke….but Hunter isn’t running for public office.

If Hunter could access the fund (and I’m not saying he did, you are not a credible source of information, and you don’t use credible sources), it wasn’t hers.
My parents set up a trust they (and I) couldn’t access, good thing too, I would have had nothing by the time I went. Parents raiding their children’s college fund is not abnormal, especially in Trump’s economy when this allegedly happened.
Hunter’s children can go to any college they are accepted at thanks to Joe.

It seems you have no evidence of what he did with it if he took it, just guesses. Maybe he gave it to her mother for safe keeping. Maybe he spent it on her. You don’t know, in fact you don’t know if any of this is true. Your sources simply aren’t a bit credible.

I guess you’ve abandoned the utterly ridiculous lie about him being paid billions by the Chinese and Ukrainians, because there’s not a person in history that could survive $2 billion in crack and hookers, and he wouldn’t have had a low balance if they had. Another of your dumb lies destroyed by the next even dumber lie. 😂

Your story is Hunter told his bankers to liquidate what they can and he loves them both? 😂

Funny you don’t want to talk about Trump running away from court like a coward instead of standing up to the judge and prosecutors like he swore he would, or dropping his dumb lawsuits that will still cost him millions like a coward because he’s terrified of being deposed and knew he would come off looking like a criminal idiot.
Funny you don’t want to discuss him getting tossed from the Forbes richest men list because he’s actually in debt and his net worth was always nothing but self reported lies 2000%-10000% contradicted by what he reported on his taxes, there was never a scintilla of truth to his financial status, never.
Funny you don’t want to discuss the fraudulent loans he took, sometimes from criminal elements or hostile powers, always under fraudulent statements of his net worth or his collateral’s value.
Funny you don’t want to discuss the thousands of contractors he ripped off, never paid, and often drove into bankruptcy by not paying his bills, or their children who didn’t have a college fund because Trump stole the money. 😂

You really need to stop the “Hunter” stupidity. No matter what he’s done, he’s not running for office so it’s meaningless and is only a good opportunity to compare his problems with Trump’s abject criminality and disgustingly abusive sexual behavior including repeatedly paying porn stars for sex while married, lusting after his young teenage daughter publicly, sexually abusing young teenaged contestants at his beauty competition, and treating all others with distain and hatred if they aren’t groveling at his feet, even those he hired.

bobknight33 said:

Your just a TOOL of the left. A propagandist

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hunter-biden-raided-daughters-college-fund-20000-buy-hookers-and-drugs
Hunter Biden Raided Daughter's College Fund For $20,000 To Buy Hookers And Drugs: Report.

On Dec. 17, 2018, Hunter's money managers warned of his extremely low balance, according to records obtained by the Daily Mail. That's exactly when, according to Hunter's Memoir, he was in his "penultimate odyssey through full blown addiction," when he was dropping thousands of dollars on prostitutes and crack cocaine.

In response to the warning, Hunter ordered the bankers to transfer $20,000 from his daughter Maisy's educational savings account, early withdrawal consequences be damned.

"liquidate what you can' and 'Live [love] you both," Hunter wrote

Jain - Dynabeat

moonsammy says...

That one had a LOT less Sony product placement too. Good lord...

I do like the song and video though, outside that element. And I can barely fault her for taking the $ if it helps her keep making cool music...

newtboy said:

Groovy, but I preferred the energy of *related=https://videosift.com/video/Jain-Makeba

I love how her videos splice together.

Lock Him Up Yesterday! - A Randy Rainbow Song Parody

bcglorf says...

Good news Bob, in something of an anomaly, you've got an opportunity to read the truth about this incident on foxnews(I know, it's opposite day in the world):

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-mar-a-lago-search-justified

Link is above, but choice quote from FOX themselves follows:


If this were a mere issue of simply recovering unclassified presidential records, though, there likely never would have been a criminal element to this matter. But buried into those boxes were countless properly marked classified documents. Those documents lacked any markings indicating that Trump had ever declassified them. No actual substantiated evidence indicates Mr. Trump ever declassified them. No one viewing those records would have any reason to view them as anything other than properly classified documents.

The government tried to recover the documents peacefully and quietly. They spent one year discussing the matter with Trump’s staff, and 15 boxes were sent back to NARA in February.

After identifying more missing records, the government returned in June with a subpoena and found more boxes of records that should have been returned. Both times, properly marked classified documents – up to and including documents marked as Top Secret and requiring Sensitive Compartmented Information access eligibility – were located within the boxes.

A Trump lawyer swore out an affidavit promising there were no more documents. The government gathered evidence that the Trump lawyer was not being truthful, and on August 8, 2022, a court-authorized search warrant was executed that, sure enough, located several more classified documents.

That is not an abuse of law enforcement processes. That is how the law works.


Now I'm going to repeat the last statement there for emphasis, but even FOX stated it: That is not an abuse of law enforcement processes. That is how the law works.

bobknight33 said:

All just for show.
Just to keep the Trump war drum beating.
Just to keep Trump from running 2024.

The real question is why is the deep state so afraid of this man?

Nothing will come of this because Trump has done nothing wrong.

World's First Floating City

eoe says...

1. Never trust anyone who says "basically" too much about things that aren't basic at all.

2. I don't see Taco Bells, Walmarts, and other terrible elements of suburban life. I don't know how that'll float (ho ho!) in South Korea, but it'd never hold water (ho ho!) in the US.

3. I agree with newtboy. I'd like to know what sort of people are on their payroll or board of directors. Do they have all the sorts of scientists ad engineers you'd want for a project like this or just a handful of pie-in-the-sky Silicon Valley-ish types?

GOP Handmaid’s Tale

newtboy says...

No one understands Republicans. Their ideas are completely divorced from reality, science, reason, sanity, and morality.

If you don’t like the law, you can just move (remember, that’s your answer to why it’s ok for Republicans to CHANGE the laws). There are plenty of places where abortion is illegal….mostly shithole countries as you call them. Don’t make America one of those.

More lies and nonsense.
No one kills children like that besides Republicans getting secret back alley abortions…I only know you people do that because you accused others, and that’s a guarantee you guys do it no matter how outrageous and unreal the claim.
That is what WILL happen to embryos (not children you tool) in back alley abortion clinics without the proper tools, doctors, and zero oversight. Abortions won’t stop because you drove them into back alleys, they’ll just get more horrific, and that will be 100% on your heads.

Have Republicans set up agencies to take these unwanted children, over 600000 per year, and raise them all at now $275000 each and rising 3% per year? Have Republican doctors figured out how to force live births (without endangering the woman) at 6 weeks or later, and incubators to bring it to term? That’s probably another million on average. Of course not, let those babies starve or be abandoned to the elements, as long as they get born. You aren’t going to spend money to raise them, that’s the rape victim’s responsibility to raise their rapist’s baby. If they didn’t want that responsibility, they shouldn’t have gotten raped.

Are Republicans prepared to be forced to live in hospitals as living dialysis machines, living blood pumps, and living donors of any organ they have two of? If saving lives is important, you would have done all that before trying to remove women’s rights to their own bodies….but you haven’t done any of that because you don’t see women as people who deserve rights to control their own bodies, what’s put in them, and what they have to let grow inside them. Of course not. That’s inconvenient, so fuck those people who need your organs to live. Saving lives isn’t worth losing YOUR bodily autonomy….it’s only worth stripping others of theirs. Hypocrites.

Republicans LOVE killing, all republicans LOVE the death penalty for lesser and lesser crimes and younger and younger convicts. It’s not about stopping life from starting (which happens at first breath, not conception), it’s about controlling those that are their lessors. That’s why there’s no exceptions for rape, incest, or endangering the mother (except extremely rare cases in a few places). You don’t care a whit about what happens to the baby, even less about the mother, they’re nothing more than an incubator to your incel ilk.

Blobs aren’t children….or is that what you call your children? It would explain a lot. Nerve pulses aren’t a heartbeat without a heart. Humans don’t have tails. Zygotes aren’t people. I know you disagree with these scientific and medical facts, that only proves they’re correct.

Once again, you make up nonsense based on your pure ignorance, Cartman. You just look dumber, more sexist, and more dishonest daily.

bobknight33 said:

I don't understand republicans. Trying to stop the killing of unborn children because the mom finds "it" inconvenient is nonsense .

Woman should be able to kill their child for any reason. Let the DR snip the limbs off, the spinal cord and puree the child in the womb. After all it just a blob isn't it?

Holiday Ride | Chevrolet

cloudballoon says...

Better be cynical then just lapping up these same 'ol same 'ol regressive marketing snooze-fest ads.

My first reaction to it was, if the father treasures the car and memories (the photo) so much, why not even get a full-body cover to protect it from the elements? This dumb holiday message/ad can't even get emotions right.

Tornado Touches Down in Norman Oklahoma - May 10, 2010

bobknight33 (Member Profile)

surfingyt says...

The five requisite elements of a defamation lawsuit?

A statement of fact. Of course, for defamation to have occurred, somebody must have made the statement that is considered defamatory. ...

A published statement. ...

The statement caused injury. ...

The statement must be false. ...

The statement is not privileged. ...

ruh roh LOLOLOL

newtboy said:

Damn, bad day for Trump….internal memos from the weeks before the big press conference with all Trump’s lawyers accusing Dominion (and long dead Hugo Chavez, Smartmatic, and George Soros) of vote fraud prove they knew all the claims were false well before the November 19 press conference where they publicly accused them all of treason by vote fraud.

The more we know, the more we know they knew....and we now have proof they knew they lost fairly before knowingly making false accusations, but just refused to accept it.

Before the first press conference they knew it was all bullshit, Bob. Proven by their own investigations, verified by their legal memos…it was nonsense....baseless delusion divorced from reality.
When are you going to get it that they constantly lie to you for money, power, and fame? Why does that not bother you?

Porn for fossil fuel industry

eric3579 says...

But you CAN say they are reusing parts.

From YouTube description..
" CDI’s crew felled the 90 Units in two (2) mobilizations to the site, permitting the Wind Farm Owner to complete salvage of blades and drive-train elements from some of the wind turbines to provide replacement parts for similar Units they operate at other wind farm locations."

@1:47 you can see some of the turbines in the background without blades.

(edit) random comment i found regarding this... "The wind farm was built in 2006 and had a total output of 90MW. The 90 units will be replaced with 86 General Electric Units with a total capacity 0f 235MW."

Bojeebees said:

Wish I could say I was surprised that they aren't detaching and re-using parts that can be re-used prior to demolition.

Men For Total Equality

vil says...

So how far did making women ghostbusters get us, newt?

This is possibly stupid and uniformed fun, it might even be slightly malicious fun, but there is present an element of making fun of ideology that goes too far.

Trump: Biden Will "listen to the scientists"

Khufu says...

There are always justifications, like god gave man the wisdom to make computers, but it was god that provided the raw elements! praise be to he!

Its only when the science tries to explain something that the bible is contradicted by that the scientist involved become a joke and corrupt.

My favorite though is christian scientists! lol.

newtboy said:

Sure...and those same people drive technologically advanced cars to computer designed buildings to enjoy technology rich events they bought tickets for on the internet....all science based acts...but if science is in conflict with their feelings, it's the devil.

Proof that religion rots your brain.

Let's talk about Trump going to the hospital....

newtboy says...

It happened, it was halted, it's happening again. As long as lower education is so disparate between mostly white and mostly black schools, it's proper. Revamp the education system so all high school graduates have the same educational opportunities, I would support removing it again, but we are moving the opposite direction. No link required, I explained....but from the link you provided....
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/18/upshot/some-colleges-have-more-students-from-the-top-1-percent-than-the-bottom-60.html

Did you read the link you provided about the one place supporting a day of absence? Evergreen? Their "day of absence" was 100% voluntary, not enforceable and not enforced, contrary to your claim.

The reporter chased out wasn't chased out, he was confronted, and he had left the media area to interrupt the event by "interviewing" people who didn't want to be interviewed in the middle of the event. Trump's campaign has adopted this tactic and added violence, and often physically assaulted reporters even when they comply and stay in the media area. This particular event was akin to a reporter jumping on stage and insisting the speaker let him interview him then and there, disrupting the sanctioned event.

Um....this was a discussion of why people would vote for Trump, not what's happening in Canada. That said, you can't expect a university to give a platform to a person who would use it to degrade and denigrate the university and it's policies. I wouldn't expect a religious school to host atheistic pro-life lectures, and I wouldn't expect publicly funded universities to host anti inclusion lectures.

Duh...your alleged "whiteness" class was not defining whiteness as inherently negative, it was this....
CSRE 136: White Identity Politics (AFRICAAM 136B, ANTHRO 136B)
Pundits proclaim that the 2016 Presidential election marks the rise of white identity politics in the United States. Drawing from the field of whiteness studies and from contemporary writings that push whiteness studies in new directions, this upper-level seminar asks, does white identity politics exist? How is a concept like white identity to be understood in relation to white nationalism, white supremacy, white privilege, and whiteness? We will survey the field of whiteness studies, scholarship on the intersection of race, class, and geography, and writings on whiteness in the United States by contemporary public thinkers, to critically interrogate the terms used to describe whiteness and white identities. Students will consider the perils and possibilities of different political practices, including abolishing whiteness or coming to terms with white identity. What is the future of whiteness? n*Enrolled students will be contacted regarding the location of the course. And it was cancelled in 2016-17. Don't be dishonest, it will change my responses.

Not sure why you made up this falsely alleged definition of racism that appears nowhere in the definitions or class descriptions you linked, but you did. Calling bullshit....Again.

Critical Race Theory (7016): This course will consider one of the newest intellectual currents within American Legal Theory -- Critical Race Theory. Emerging during the 1980s, critical race scholars made many controversial claims about law and legal education -- among them that race and racial inequality suffused American law and society, that structural racial subordination remained endemic, and that both liberal and critical legal theories marginalized the voices of racial minorities. Course readings will be taken from both classic works of Critical Race Theory and newer interventions in the field, as well as scholarship criticizing or otherwise engaging with Critical Race Theory from outside or at the margins of the field. Meeting dates: The class will meet 7:15PM to 9:15PM on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (January 7, 8, and 9), and the following Monday and Tuesday (January 13 and 14). Elements used in grading: Class Participation, Written Assignments.

Not anti white/pro minority/white=evil....but an examination of how laws as written and enforced may (or may not) be an example of racial injustice codified in law, whether by accident or intent. Again, you misrepresent the facts to pretend a class that examines the roll of race in law is a racist class teaching whites are bad and blacks are good.

If everyone BUT Asains do poorly because they aren't offered the same opportunities to excell, then yes, we need to step in to UPGRADE the opportunities of everyone else, that doesn't translate into downgrading the opportunities Asains are offered. Derp. This bullshit is the same racist trope the anti equality side has used for years, it's just bullshit. Asians aren't penalized for being competent at math nor for being Asian....neither were whites, which was V 1.0 of that same argument.

Identity politics are on both sides, played hard by the right too, to the detriment of society.

Affirmative action got national pushback from the racist right the day it was described as a plan, and constantly since.

It seems you may be confused by morons who would tell you racism is dead, reverse racism is out of control. When white women start being lynched by black mobs and blacks get a free pass for breaking the law, come back and try again. Until then, you sound like a bully whining about getting a time out for punching a smaller kid because they're a different race and proclaiming the whole system is unfair to white kids because you had a minor consequence forced on you.

bcglorf said:

@newtboy
-Including race as a determining factor in your admission score
as a 'liberal' ideal
This IS happening broadly, link to how and arguments for why it is 'good'
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2019/10/03/harvard-beat-an-effort-end-its-use-race-factor-admissions-what-will-supreme-court-do/
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2019/10/01/471085/5-reasons-support-affirmative-action-college-admissions/

-Enforcement of a race based "day of absence" where based on your race you were to be 'kicked off' campus for the day
Specifically the day of absence was at evergreen:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_State_College#2017_protests
Similarly reverse racist attitudes though are common enough, like chasing out a student journalist here for simply covering an event:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kVGtqp7usw

-"deplatforming" people for having dissenting opinions
Jordan Peterson is the biggest example, but my local uni has also banned pro-life student clubs too, so maybe I'm a little Canada biased on this?

-The entire circle-jerk of intersectionalism:
---"whiteness" needs to be defined as something inherently negative
Here's the Standford course on it if you or your parents wanna enrol:
https://explorecourses.stanford.edu/search?view=catalog&filter-coursestatus-Active=on&page=0&catalog=&q=CSRE+32SI%3A+Whiteness&collapse=

---"Racism" needs to redefined as not simply racial prejudice, but racial prejudice PLUS power(you know, so only white people can be racist under the new definition)
Likewise offered at Stanford, unless this is the lone critical race theory course that doesn't champion the above prejudice+power definition.
https://law.stanford.edu/courses/critical-race-theory/

---"systemic racism" getting defined as anything with unequal outcomes, so if asian students do too well in math it must mean the system is favouring them and we need to step in


And I'm out of time,

but seriously I'm a little baffled this was remotely controversial? Identity politics is a game the left has been playing at HARD for at minimum the decades since Affirmative Action was launched. The notion that the idea would eventually get national level push back should have been easy to see coming.



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