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Zawash (Member Profile)

NDT Explains Why 2023 Climate Models Failed

bcglorf says...

Media(and even some of the vocal scientists trying to urge action) have been guilty of overstating confidence in climate modelling. Which is more or less what they are agreeing on in the video.

The IPCC summary of state of the art climate modelling, and virtually ALL published papers on various climate models agree that the unknown and poorly modelled aspects of our climate are larger than the known influence of CO2.

That is to say, the physical modelling largely operates on energy in and out from the Sun and then playing out how changes in that energy balance operate. The thing is, that energy budget is enormous, and the number of factors at play are even larger and dynamic to make it more fun. The influence of CO2 in the energy budget is one of the relatively straightforward elements, and so we've got a pretty good and confident assessment of how much it impacts energy balance. The problem with climate modelling, is that the CO2 impact is smaller than the errors and unknowns in many other factors in the model including clouds.

Which is all saying that our climate modelling is hard, and even though we know CO2 changes are pushing the energy balance up, our modelling of the energy balance is still not good enough to accurately predict energy balance changes. That means we've got a giant 'all other things being equal' qualifier on model projections because if cloud behaviour changes based on temperature, we KNOW that our errors there are larger than the influence of CO2.

Modellers have been trying to draw attention to this nuance, but it's been deemed inconvenient to persuading the public to act and thus ignored by many pushing for action. The almost inevitable side effect though is that over time the reality of the models inaccuracy will play out and the public is gonna be asking why 'science' was wrong.

newtboy (Member Profile)

Weekend Update: Christmas Joke Swap 2023 - SNL

newtboy jokingly says...

Right, he has more practice…but after the “little art films” he’s not getting any protection from the Avengers…he might want to try sleeping on his ferry for a while. I’m pretty certain previous years has ensured he gets no police protection. That’s what I mean by no safe harbor, Che still has home to go to.

“Y’all need Jesus” was great. The Beyoncé joke was good too, pissed off all black women at once, but IMO Jost is definitely in more danger.

cloudballoon said:

I mean... Jost's been living under police (or Black Widow) protection for years since Che's been owning him every Joke Swap. It's something that need not be said anymore.

This is the first time Che's in sweating territory though. From just 3 words! That's a credit to Jost. I think Jost did better this year than any others, even though he still couldn't beat Che (a foregone conclusion).

The fake poet/activist black lady move is genius on Che's part, there's just no win for Jost, and her no contact with Jost is just pure humiliation from beginning to end.

The Hydrodynamics of Marbling Art

The Hydrodynamics of Marbling Art

Buttle (Member Profile)

siftbot says...

Congratulations! Your video, The Hydrodynamics of Marbling Art, has reached the #1 spot in the current Top 15 New Videos listing. This is a very difficult thing to accomplish but you managed to pull it off. For your contribution you have been awarded 2 Power Points.

This achievement has earned you your "Golden One" Level 21 Badge!

Buttle (Member Profile)

siftbot says...

Congratulations! Your video, Walking Snow Art by Simon Beck, has reached the #1 spot in the current Top 15 New Videos listing. This is a very difficult thing to accomplish but you managed to pull it off. For your contribution you have been awarded 2 Power Points.

This achievement has earned you your "Golden One" Level 20 Badge!

Buttle (Member Profile)

Walking Snow Art by Simon Beck

Game Of Thrones Snow Art

Walking Snow Art by Simon Beck

Scavengers Reign | Official Teaser | HBO Max

Scavengers Reign | Official Teaser | HBO Max

Scavengers Reign | Official Teaser | HBO Max



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