oritteropo AU

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Real Name: Aard Vark
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Comments to oritteropo

radx says...

Take a look at these two charts, if you have a minute.

Spain: left scale is GDP (green) and industrial production & construction (black), right scale (inverted!) is unemployment rate (red)

Greece: same data, same scales

Unemployment tracks industrial production & construction in Greece and Spain, as you would expect. And so does GDP in Greece, but not in Spain.

Why?

It's too big a difference to not wonder if someone's fudging the numbers here to make it like austerity did the trick for Spain.

Payback says...

Hey, Love that motorcycle engine sanding video.

I wonder when the first grammar nazi will point out you said "an inch at a time" in the description.







... oh shit.

radx says...

Yup, I've seen similar graphs (different base, same result).

If you were to add projected GDP based on previous growth to it, you'd need a drink. If you further added a rough guesstimate of lost output potential due to constant underutilisation, you'd need to make it a double. And if you were to extend it to the entire eurozone and just look at the aggregate of lost output, you might as well keep the bottle at hand.

It'll take decades to undo this damage. Given the precarious situation of young folks in a significant number of countries, I'm not convinced the union will exist for much longer.

Just look at Greece: according to Costas Lapavitsas, some 80% of youth votes in the recent referendum were "no". Now their government intends to subject them to even harsher terms -- that's not sustainable.

oritteropo said:

Had you seen the graph in this article comparing the Greek recession with the great depression in the US? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33590334

BoneRemake says...

Thank you for the engine video ! I liked that, the size of those machines are insane and that machine that was scraping the metal away/plaining was really cool to see it shave the matal away no problem. That video led me to this video and I think YOU may like it :

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siftbot says...

You just received a gift of 2 Power Points from an anonymous specimen of awesomeness. Spend them well, and make your generous benefactor proud.

radx says...

Unclear.

A straight-up haircut is not an option. An extension of maturities, a stretching of repayments and waving of interest could have worked quite handily as late as two months ago. But ever since this idea was picked up by others, ever since it was explained in some detail how small of an effect it would have on our national budget, the usual suspects went into overdrive to hammer in the notion that it's still a loss to the tune of €XXb. The argument that it would be a measily €1-€1.5b a year, with a slight uptick to €3b in 2026 or something was burried under a huge pile of fear mongering.

Not sure if you can put enough make-up on this pig. Lots of folks went all-in with their demonisation of any form of debt restructuring. Especially when it's a "solution" Varoufakis has also argued for.

oritteropo said:

Are they as opposed to extending the repayment schedule as they are to an honest up-front write down?

radx says...

- In Merkel's defence, she's never been elected for her track record of empathy.

- Your gulag is the envy of the "civilized" world. Out of sight, out of mind. Quite frankly, between letting people rot on godforsaken islands and marauding bands of Nazis setting their shelters on fire, I think our two nations got the entire spectrum of despicable behaviour covered.

- 14k on airfares per person, almost 5k for ground transport -- just what did they travel in? Then again, that picture looks like she's desperatly trying to fit in with the blue blooded elites.

- I don't get Abbott. Steven Harper neither, for that matter. How can a reasonable people float this kind of person to the top? There are plenty of loonies around, but always with a solid base of loonies behind them (eg Berlusconi or Cameron). But not Abbott & Harper...

oritteropo said:

And then there was this one - http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/16/angela-merkel-comforts-teenage-palestinian-asylum-seeker-germany

Really there was no way to come out of that one looking good... although I do give her points for at least showing up and talking to the girl. Our own local version of the CDU would have locked her up in the Gulags of Nauru or Manus Island, and prevented any interviews or reporting punishable by 2 years gaol http://gu.com/p/4abgf/stw

Something else from Australian politics, the speaker of the house has come under fire for her travel expenses - http://gu.com/p/4akdp/stw - strangely not so much for the $A90,000 on a trip to Europe, but instead for the $5,000 for a helicopter trip to Geelong for a party fundraiser... go figure.

This one was just funny - our chief lizard trying to stay on message seems to have suggested that a grocery code would have prevented the Greek financial crisis - http://gu.com/p/4ae24/stw

radx says...

Something I meant to write the other day: the IMF dilemma has become quite intriguing over the last couple of days.

The latest IMF report, though still based on outlandish assumptions, marks a sizeable debt restructuring as a requisite for further involvement of the IMF in Greece. Germany, on the other hand, rules out debt restructuring of any kind, and haircuts in particular. However, Germany also insists on the IMF's continuing participating in the Troika, because a) noone else has the capacity to provide Orwellian monitoring of a countries' financial actions and b) to provide economic credibility. Of course, having a non-European patsy is always a good idea.

Nevermind the fact that the report was available prior to the last deal and held back intentionally -- I'm curious who's going to give way in this matter.

The IMF cannot back down much further without its members going apeshit at this disaster. They want no share of the blame that will inevitably be thrown around in good amounts once Greek reaches the end of the road. And Germany... well, constant propaganda has pretty much made sure that neither public nor parliament will accept any restructuring, unless it is plastered with a whole lot of make-up and maybe a Sideshow Bob hairpiece.

radx says...

I'd be ecstatic if only they acknowledged the work of Keynes, but even that seems too much to ask...

oritteropo said:

Interesting timing, since the heads of the ECB and the Eurogroup clearly disavow the theory... to the extent that eurozone member states can just forget it exists thanks and just go and be thankful for their stale bread and gruel.

radx says...

Short version: Fuchs is a hardliner in many regards. Like you say, his perspective on this matter stands seperate from the rest of the world (except this one particular country in central Europe), which is why I used to not pay too much attention to folks like him. Bad idea. As it turns out, lots of people support his view, many more than I ever thought possible, depressing as that may be.

The entire thing is a break with 70 years of post-war diplomacy, trying to become a part of Europe again. Adenauer (Brandt) received better treatment in Moscow (Warsaw) than Tsipras did in Brussels/Berlin. From a European Germany straight back to a German Europe in no time at all...

Edit: Habermas offers his take on this matter.

oritteropo said:

I guess this isn't news to you, but Dr Fuchs certainly has a different perspective than "rest of world" on the Greek bailout:
[video]

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